by Christian Ketels
If one wants to look for a ray of hope in an otherwise quite bleak global economic outlook the sight inevitably falls unto India. Where overall long-term growth projections are ratcheted down[1], India is seen to perceive strong growth potential both in the short-term[2] and in the long-term.
But India has been there before[3]. It has long been seen as the country of the future, only to then not quite live up to this promise. Unfortunately, the public debate now seems to be focused on whether India’s growth to become one of the world’s preeminent economies over the near future is inevitable or mere hype[4].
This paper takes a different perspective. Building on the “Roadmap for Better Growth – India@100”[5] it concentrates on what India should focus on to realize its potential. Nothing is ever entirely inevitable in economic development. India clearly has significantly opportunities, but these will only translate into actual growth and prosperity when active steps are taken to exploit them. India has also already made more progress than many give the country credit for[6], especially some observers in the West that remain stuck in an outdated perception of the country[7]. But that does not mean that the remaining obstacles ahead are trivial. The government has launched many policy initiatives over recent years[8]. But are they enough or the right ones to ensure future success? This is a question that the pride about India’s achievements and potential should not overshadow.
The paper can be downloaded here.
[1] Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects (worldbank.org)
[2] World Economic Outlook (imf.org)
[3] Can India Overtake China? – Foreign Policy
[4] Book Review: “India Is Broken” by Ashoka Mody (foreignaffairs.com)
[5] Competitiveness Roadmap For India@100 – EAC-PM (eacpm.gov.in)
[6] MADE IN INDIA: 75 Years of Business and Enterprise : Amitabh Kant, Amitabh Kant: Amazon.in: Books
[7] Understanding The ‘New India’ And What It Means For Europe – Analysis – Eurasia Review
[8] Panagariya, Arvind (2018), India: Three and a Half Years of Modinomics, Columbia SIPA Working Paper 2018-01, Columbia University: New York, NY
